The reactions to Mirzoyan's statement on the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations are manipulative

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan gave an interview to the Turkish state-run Anadolu news agency during the recent Antalya diplomatic forum, stating that “the people of Armenia generally want to normalize relations with Turkey.”

“It is reflected in public opinion polls as well. Of course, both in Armenian and Turkish societies, there are certain groups that, let me say, are skeptical about this process,” Mirzoyan said.

Mirzoyan’s assertion, however, was not accepted unequivocally. RPA member Hayk Mamijanyan, MP from the “I Have Honor” faction of the National Assembly, as well as some social media users claim that Mirzoyan has manipulated the results of public opinion polls and that the population of Armenia is against the normalization of relations with Turkey.

“Did you count that public opinion in government “dachas”? In our country, only those from the dacha are in favor of running into the arms of the Turks. 68-90% of the society consider Turkey a threat (depending on the sector – economic, political, security), and only 5% consider that it is necessary to improve relations with that country in the first place,” Mamijanyan wrote.

Mamijanyan’s post was published by a number of news outlets, including News.am, Pastinfo.am, aravot.am and others. As evidence, Mamijanyan cites the results of a survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) on January 31. Most likely, Ararat Mirzoyan’s statement was based on the same poll.

The Fact Investigation Platform decided to study the IRI survey and the accuracy of its conflicting interpretations.

What do the survey results show?

The survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) involved 1,512 adults. The margin of error does not exceed 2.5%.

Some of the questions related to the foreign and domestic political life of Armenia referred to the Armenia-Turkey relations and whether Turkey is a threat to Armenia.

According to the survey results, only 5% of respondents consider normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations a priority, 73% of respondents “agree” or “somewhat agree” that “Armenia should start a dialogue with Turkey and normalize bilateral relations, while pursuing the agenda of recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey”. And 70% of the respondents “agree” or “somewhat agree” that Armenia must establish bilateral relations with Turkey by putting forward its own preconditions, such as Turkey’s non-hindrance in Nagorno-Karabakh peace.

44% of the respondents consider that under no circumstances should Armenia pursue normalization of relations with Turkey.

Those who present counter-arguments to Ararat Mirzoyan’s statement draw attention to the other part of the poll results, according to which the vast majority of respondents (70-90%) believe that Turkey is the main economic, political and security threat to Armenia. However, this consideration does not contradict the settlement or the attitude of the people towards the settlement process, which, in fact, is reflected in the data quoted above. Therefore, the assertion that the majority of the population of Armenia is against the normalization of relations with Turkey is manipulative.

It should also be noted that 35% of respondents believe that the opening of transport routes with Turkey will have a positive impact on Armenia’s economy.

The population of Armenia has expressed a positive opinion on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations in previous polls as well. Thus, the Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC) published a large-scale survey on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations in 2015, where 51% of respondents were positive about the prospect of reopening the Armenian-Turkish border, and 46% had a negative attitude towards the suspension of the process.