Gallup or MPG? The secret of difference in pre-election polls

MPG, member of Gallup International Аssociation in Armenia, conducted a survey on 17 to 21 of November among 1111 people having the right to vote. According to the results of the survey, the citizens are going to vote accordingly in the snap parliamentary elections to be held on December 9:

• “My Step” bloc: 68.3%
• Prosperous Armenia: 6.7%
• RPA: 1.5%
• Bright Armenia: 1.2%
• ARF: 1%
• Sasna Tsrer: 0.9%
• Christian Democratic Revival: 0.3%
• We (“Menk”) bloc: 0.3%
• Citizen’s Decision social democratic party: 0.2%
• Rule of Law: 0.1%
• National Progress: 0%

A similar survey conducted on October 9 to 29 by the International Republican Institute was published recently. It was conducted among 967 likely voters, and had the following results:

• Civil Contract: 67%
• Bright Armenia: 10%
• Prosperous Armenia 9%
• Sasna Tsrer: 3%
• RPA: 2%
• ARF: 2%
• Republic Party: 1%
• Apricot Land Party: 1%
• Heritage Party: <1%
• Free Democrats Party <1%

It is important to note that these surveys were conducted with a difference of about one month. The second survey was conducted when many parties had not yet confirmed their participation in the elections (the final list of participating parties and blocs was announced only on November 14).

Nevertheless, attention is drawn to the fact that there is a doubtful difference between indicators of some political forces. Especially eye-catching is the difference of indicators for the Bright Armenia Party: 10% (IRI) and 1.2% (MPG). Theoretically, it is possible that the rating of Bright Armenia Party can substantially decline in a month. However, if we consider the matter in the light of the domestic political processes, there were no significant developments in this party that could have affected its reputation during last month.

It is also noteworthy that the three leaders of Gallup’s survey are My Step Bloc, PAP, and RPA. In other words, these are the parties / blocs that will pass to the National Assembly, since according to the existing Electoral Code, even if only one force overcomes the threshold (5% for parties and 7% for blocs), three parties/blocs should be in the National Assembly. According to the IRI survey, The Republican Party is not the third with its 2%, and is preceded by Bright Armenia Party (10%) and Sasna Tsrer Party (3%).

Fact Investigation Platform addressed Gallup International Association in September.  This organization had repeatedly been criticized by former Armenian opposition. For example, political scientist Armen Grigoryan, who is currently Secretary of the National Security Council, strongly criticized their survey on constitutional amendments in 2015 and called the organization “fake,” claiming that they are conducting fake surveys in different parts of the world. Member of Heritage Party Armen Martirosyan once called them a subsidiary of the former authorities. The opposition press has repeatedly questioned their surveys in Armenia.

Gallup International Association often misleads people with its name. There are two organizations in the world with a similar name. The more famous one is Gallup, Inc registered in the US. It is considered one of the most reliable organizations conducting sociological surveys in the world. Regarding Gallup International Аssociation, it is registered in Zurich, Switzerland. In fact, it is not a company, but an association (network), and its members are companies operating in different countries and conducting marketing research. In Armenia, it cooperates with MPG LLC (Marketing Professional Group) since 2011 (https://gallup.am/). MPG, in its turn, is possessed by Armenian Marketing Association NGO. Aram Navasardyan heads both the NGO and the LLC.

In some countries, partner organizations of Gallup International Аssociation are obliged to mention that they have nothing in common with the American Gallup Inc. Pakistan is an example.

However, there is no such obligation in Armenia, and MPG continues to mislead people with the name “Gallup”.

Hovhannes Nazaretyan