Pashinyan’s inspiring statement in 2019 and the real situation with Armenia’s GDP

As early as in 2019, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia had overpassed Georgia in terms of GDP per capita.

“I want to mention an indicator, which is very symbolic and may even have historical significance. In 2019, Armenia managed to overpass Georgia in terms of GDP per capita. But most importantly, we will overpass Azerbaijan in terms of GDP per capita in 2020,” Pashinyan said.

Back then the Fact Investigation Platform referred to the prime minister’s claims, revealing that the Prime Minister’s statement was based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, while the official statistics of the three countries showed that in 2019 the GDP per capita in Armenia was lower than in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Аccording to official statistics, in Armenia this figure amounted to $ 4615 in 2019, while it was $ 4696 in Georgia and $ 4808 in Azerbaijan.

The indicators published by the World Bank were also quite close to these indicators. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister based his speech in the National Assembly on the data of the International Monetary Fund. The statement regarding 2020 was also made on the basis of IMF forecasts.

The Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia has recently published the results of 2020, according to which Armenia’s GDP fell by 7.6%, and the GDP per capita was only $ 4,269.

Although the statistical services of Georgia and Azerbaijan have not yet officially published the GDP data for 2020, according to preliminary estimates, the economic decline in Georgia will be about 6.1%, and 4.3% in Azerbaijan.

This means that the GDP per capita will be about $ 4409 in Georgia, and $ 4601 in Azerbaijan.

According to the World Bank, Armenia continued to fall behind the two neighboring countries both in 2019 and in 2020. According to the World Bank, in 2020, the GDP per capita in Armenia amounted to $ 4622, and $ 4,697 in Georgia and $ 4793 in Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, the data of the International Monetary Fund is completely different.

According to the IMF, the GDP per capita last year in Armenia amounted to $ 4310, $ 4420 in Georgia, and $ 4120 in Azerbaijan. Interestingly, the data published by the IMF last year differs significantly from the current indicators, and according to the verified data, in 2019 Armenia was behind both Georgia and Azerbaijan.

* According to the Data of the International Monetary Fund

As we have mentioned, the largest economic decline among the three states was registered in Armenia, and, hence, the GDP per capita must have decreased the most, but the IMF specialists do not agree. According to their preliminary data, Armenia would overpass Azerbaijan in 2020, but this time, according to the same IMF, Armenia would be behind Georgia.

By the way, this is not the only case when the forecasts of prestigious international organizations do not come true. Recently, the World Bank published a report on transfers between countries, according to which in 2018, more than $ 200 million was transferred from Azerbaijan to Armenia. The Fact Investigation Platform revealed that the calculation was based on the assumptions of the World Bank experts, while in reality no money transfers are made between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Thus, the statement made by Nikol Pashinyan at the end of 2019 that in 2019 we were ahead of Georgia in terms of GDP per capita did not correspond to reality, even after corrections by IMF experts.

As for the year 2020, according to the official statistical services of the three countries, and the data of the World Bank, Armenia continues to lag behind neighboring countries in terms of GDP per capita, and only according to the preliminary data of the International Monetary Fund, Armenia is ahead of Azerbaijan by this index. However, it should be noted that this indicator is not final yet, and taking into account the fact that the biggest economic downturn among the three countries was registered in Armenia, Armenia will most likely be behind Azerbaijan when the IMF publishes the adjusted indicators.

Sevada Ghazaryan